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A rush to renewables isn’t enough; managing fossil fuel emissions is...
A guest post by my scenarios team colleague Richard Baker – Senior Energy Adviser There is widespread consensus that a marked decline in the use of all oil and gas over the coming decades is required...
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Developing countries hold the key to reaching Net Zero Emissions
A guest post by my scenario team colleagues Thomas Akkerhuis and Georgios Bonias In a few days, leaders from the world’s largest economies will gather in India for the 2023 G20 summit. The G20...
View ArticleThe pencil problem
Many years ago the well know economist Milton Friedman made a short film about pencils that continues to resonate today. While the film can be interpreted as simply a defence for capitalism, which...
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COP28 and the conflict over copper
COP28 has come and gone, with the UAE Consensus adopted and now potentially steering the world to a more rapid transition with its ambitious goals for deployment of low-carbon energy technologies....
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Temperature, tensions and two scenarios
Just a year ago the scenarios team in Shell published The Energy Security Scenarios, a look at the world through the dual lenses of climate change and rising security concerns. Today, the two...
View ArticleNormative or exploratory – how should scenarios be developed?
In a time when there is much being written about limiting warming to 1.5°C, the so-called normative scenario has come of age. These emerge from a class of scenario analysis where a principal outcome...
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In Brazil, land use change looms large
The recent release of the Brazil Scenarios Sketch, based around the Shell Energy Security Scenarios, highlights the role that land-use change could play for Brazil to achieve two important outcomes;...
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The emerging EV wave knows no bounds
In June the Shell Scenarios team launched our Brazil Scenarios Sketch, a deep dive into how the energy transition might unfold in Brazil and how the country can become a world leader in better...
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Can Brazil balance oil and climate ambitions?
This post is a guest contribution by Thomas Akkerhuis, Energy Analyst and Richard Baker, Senior Energy Adviser, both in the Shell Scenarios Team. As the Brazil hosted G20 approaches and thoughts...
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Assessing the gap
In the weeks before a UNFCCC COP, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) traditionally publishes its Emissions Gap Report. The report assesses the latest scientific studies on current and estimated...
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