Normative or exploratory – how should scenarios be developed?
In a time when there is much being written about limiting warming to 1.5°C, the so-called normative scenario has come of age. These emerge from a class of scenario analysis where a principal outcome...
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In Brazil, land use change looms large
The recent release of the Brazil Scenarios Sketch, based around the Shell Energy Security Scenarios, highlights the role that land-use change could play for Brazil to achieve two important outcomes;...
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The emerging EV wave knows no bounds
In June the Shell Scenarios team launched our Brazil Scenarios Sketch, a deep dive into how the energy transition might unfold in Brazil and how the country can become a world leader in better...
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Can Brazil balance oil and climate ambitions?
This post is a guest contribution by Thomas Akkerhuis, Energy Analyst and Richard Baker, Senior Energy Adviser, both in the Shell Scenarios Team. As the Brazil hosted G20 approaches and thoughts...
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Assessing the gap
In the weeks before a UNFCCC COP, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) traditionally publishes its Emissions Gap Report. The report assesses the latest scientific studies on current and estimated...
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Artificial intelligence, climate and temperature
Note: With the release of new scenarios from Shell, please read here what scenarios are, and what they are not. In early February the European Copernicus climate service announced that the January...
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Is a nuclear-powered marine sector a possibility?
I recently had the opportunity to attend a workshop in London where the global marine community was beginning to think about the possibility of nuclear power for ships. Various governments, companies...
View ArticleFive years on from COVID-19 – a scenario perspective
Five years ago, in April 2020, much of the world worked from home or had their job impacted in some way by the emergence of the global pandemic. Government spending was ramped up in almost every...
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Like it or not, carbon management is the future
One of the differentiating features of the Shell scenarios work is the timeline through to 2100 that is offered. Many other energy scenarios more typically model through to 2050, such as in the World...
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Different planes or new fuels?
Over 60 years ago I went on the first plane ride that I can recall, a relatively new Qantas Boeing 707 V-Jet from Malaya to Australia (we had travelled to the Federation of Malaya – as it was then –...
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