Clik here to view.
Are we now range bound on temperature?
In my last post I discussed the recent IEA 1.5°C Scenario that sets out what is required to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and manage the transition within a carbon budget of 500 Gt CO2. The IEA...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The simple climate maths the IPCC didn’t fully explain
When I first started delving into the issue of climate change about 20 years ago, the clarion call of the day was to reduce emissions by 50% by 2050. Today, as we all know, the call is for net-zero...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Creating a 21st century energy hub in Singapore
About a year ago the Shell Scenario Team released the Energy Transformation Scenarios, which looked in detail at possible pathways the world might take in this century as society responds to climate...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Plunging into Islands?
I, no doubt like you, am deeply concerned about Russia’s war against Ukraine and horrified at the resulting loss of life and humanitarian crisis enveloping millions of people. The protection of people...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Reflecting on the IPCC Synthesis Report through new Shell scenarios
After a year of work, with a few hints along the way offered via this blog, the Shell scenarios team launched The Energy Security Scenarios this week. This is the team I am proud to be a member of and...
View ArticleClik here to view.
A rush to renewables isn’t enough; managing fossil fuel emissions is...
A guest post by my scenarios team colleague Richard Baker – Senior Energy Adviser There is widespread consensus that a marked decline in the use of all oil and gas over the coming decades is required...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Developing countries hold the key to reaching Net Zero Emissions
A guest post by my scenario team colleagues Thomas Akkerhuis and Georgios Bonias In a few days, leaders from the world’s largest economies will gather in India for the 2023 G20 summit. The G20...
View ArticleThe pencil problem
Many years ago the well know economist Milton Friedman made a short film about pencils that continues to resonate today. While the film can be interpreted as simply a defence for capitalism, which...
View ArticleClik here to view.
COP28 and the conflict over copper
COP28 has come and gone, with the UAE Consensus adopted and now potentially steering the world to a more rapid transition with its ambitious goals for deployment of low-carbon energy technologies....
View ArticleClik here to view.
Temperature, tensions and two scenarios
Just a year ago the scenarios team in Shell published The Energy Security Scenarios, a look at the world through the dual lenses of climate change and rising security concerns. Today, the two...
View ArticleNormative or exploratory – how should scenarios be developed?
In a time when there is much being written about limiting warming to 1.5°C, the so-called normative scenario has come of age. These emerge from a class of scenario analysis where a principal outcome...
View ArticleClik here to view.
In Brazil, land use change looms large
The recent release of the Brazil Scenarios Sketch, based around the Shell Energy Security Scenarios, highlights the role that land-use change could play for Brazil to achieve two important outcomes;...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The emerging EV wave knows no bounds
In June the Shell Scenarios team launched our Brazil Scenarios Sketch, a deep dive into how the energy transition might unfold in Brazil and how the country can become a world leader in better...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Can Brazil balance oil and climate ambitions?
This post is a guest contribution by Thomas Akkerhuis, Energy Analyst and Richard Baker, Senior Energy Adviser, both in the Shell Scenarios Team. As the Brazil hosted G20 approaches and thoughts...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Assessing the gap
In the weeks before a UNFCCC COP, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) traditionally publishes its Emissions Gap Report. The report assesses the latest scientific studies on current and estimated...
View Article